Why You Should track 'Trends' Not 'Absolutes'
Daily fluctuations in water weight can ruin your motivation. Learn how to read the trend line to stay sane while cutting.
The scale is a liar. It measures everything: water, bone, muscle, poop, inflammation, and that burrito you ate last night.
If you gain 2lbs overnight, you did not gain 2lbs of fat. That would require you to have eaten a surplus of ~7,000 calories in a single day (on top of your maintenance). It is physically impossible for most humans.
The Noise vs. The Signal
If you track stocks, you know that daily volatility is noise. The trend is the signal. The same applies to the human body.
High sodium intake, stress (cortisol), bad sleep, and carbohydrate timing all cause massive swings in water retention. Focusing on the daily number leads to reactive decision making such as 'I gained weight, I must starve myself today' - which actually spikes cortisol further and worsens water retention.
The Solution: Weekly Averages
Weigh yourself every day, but ignore the number. At the end of the week, take the average. Compare that average to the previous week's average. That is your true progress.